15/04/2008

Se disparan las ejecuciones hipotecarias en EEUU

Suben un 57% en marzo:

U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 57 percent and bank repossessions more than doubled in March from a year earlier.

Algo que ya predijimos en el boletín:

A partir de 2009 comienzan a revisarse los tipos de interés de las hipotecas alt-A y option ARM para ajustarlos al LIBOR, de modo que nuevos impagos se producirán. Hasta entonces, los defaults voluntarios de las hipotecas non-recourse se sucederán conforme el valor neto de las viviendas se vuelva negativo ante las caídas de precios. Así mismo, el aumento del desempleo incrementará las dificultades de los deudores para atender al repago de sus cuotas mensuales, lo que incrementará los impagos involuntarios de todas sus deudas.

De hecho, incluso los motivos son clavados.

Primero, revisión de las optimo ARM:

U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 57 percent and bank repossessions more than doubled in March from a year earlier as adjustable mortgages increased and more owners lost their homes to lenders.
Segundo, el impago voluntario:

About $460 billion of adjustable-rate loans are scheduled to reset this year, according to New York-based analysts at Citigroup Inc. Auction notices rose 32 percent from a year ago, a sign that more defaulting homeowners are ``simply walking away and deeding their properties back to the foreclosing lender'

y tercero la conjunción entre valor negativo de las viviendas y desempleo:

Borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth may be buffeted by increasing job losses in a ``very substantial recession,'' Rosen said. About 8.8 million borrowers had home mortgages that exceeded the value of their property, Moody's Economy.com said last week.
Y luego, los defaults se dan especialmente en estados non-recourse:

los deudores tienen fuertes incentivos a dejar de pagar sus hipotecas en cuanto los precios caigan, sobre todo en aquellos estados donde las hipotecas son por ley "non recourse", esto es, donde carecen de garantía personal.

Estados non-recourse son, precisamente, Nevada, California y Florida:

Nevada had the highest U.S. foreclosure rate in March at one for every 139 households, almost four times the national rate, RealtyTrac said. Filings there increased almost 62 percent from a year earlier to 7,659.

California had the second-highest rate at one filing for every 204 households, and the most filings for the 15th consecutive month at 64,711. Foreclosure filings more than doubled from a year earlier and were up about 21 percent from February.

Florida had the third-highest rate, one filing for every 282 households, and ranked second in total filings at 30,254. Foreclosures increased 112 percent from a year earlier and decreased almost 7 percent from February, RealtyTrac said.